John Spratt versus Ralph Norman analysis

I did an analysis piece of the Fifth District Congressional race for my newspaper.

It apparently got noticed by a liberal blogger who commented on it and posted a link.

That blog is called Devinely Southern. Here's a link to the post/ Nathan Hollifeld and Adam Harris, Pay Attention. (link has expired.)

As a journalist, I do try to remain impartial in our political coverage. I know who I'm going to vote when the time comes around.

The analysis looks at the Spratt-Norman race in what I'll admit is a simple way. The claim is that the Fifth Congressional District is "trending Republican."

The claim is based on two things, I think — there was a lot of turnout for President Bush in the Fifth District in 2004, and York County is getting increasingly Republican as more people move in from up North.

But the Fifth District covers a wide geographical area. I looked at the results from the Presidential race in the Fifth District in 2004 AND the results of Spratt's campaign then. I also looked at the county-wide leadership where I could establish it. Spratt won every county in the Fifth District, by the way, in 2004. The margins were different, and allow a guess as to the trend. York County and Cherokee County have Republican leadership. But the rest of the district is pretty much Democratic.

Voting for Bush is not an indicator of a Republican trend, to my mind. The district may be more conservative, but that doesn't mean much about which party a person will vote for. He was a war president, and that counts heavily for many people. John Kerry was an abysmal candidate.

The leadership of the counties in question, and Spratt's incumbency are the actual important factors.

Weighing those, I decided if a county was trending Republican, Republican, or still Democratic.

I also have a lot of experience in the Fifth District from another perspective. From 1994 to 1997, I lived in Chesterfield County. We had crossover news from Marlboro, Dillon, Darlington and Florence counties, even a little from Kershaw and Lancaster. I still have a few buds in Cheraw, I think. The last time I went to the Chesterfield County Courthouse (last year), Ray Green, the caretaker, said hello to me and we chatted about the "good ol' days."

When I lived in Cheraw, I had to drive to Florence to go see movies, and shopped there a lot for Christmas presents. I read all the local papers in those communities.

I had a summer internship in Lancaster one year way back.

I now live in York County and work in Chester County. We have crossover news from Fairfield and Lancaster counties for our pub.

When I first moved to South Carolina, I lived in Spartanburg. The Herald-Journal covered Cherokee County, so I have an idea about those folks.

There are 12 counties in the Fifth District. I think I have a really good feel for four of them, and have a decent insight into another five or six.

When I moved out of Cheraw to Barnwell, I still got up to the Fifth District on occasion. My wife was in the same company as I, her paper was in Fairfield County. I read it every week, and went up there to fix the computers. When she left, I had to l do some long-distance editing of her paper, wrote an editorial once or twice, and laid the paper out.

I think I have a good idea what the Fifth District is like. So when I heard it was "trending Republican," I had to wonder about it. York County certainly is skewing the numbers. That's evident. But enough to unseat an incumbent with a good record of constituent service? I dunno.

For that I got called "Stephanie" by the blogger, who also said it was an "old-fashioned" journalistic approach that Norman's campaign ought to consider.

Funny thing, I got a call Tuesday morning from Norman's campaign manager. I wonder what prompted it?

Anyway, my piece is linked in the title. The blog guy corrected himself, graciously. I appreciated that.

In his initial e-mail about my piece (to Stephanie), he wrote, "You are an awesome writer and I can't believe I hadn't read anything you've written."

That cut, though it wasn't intended to. For 12 years now, I've been on the local newspaper scene, and made a name for myself in newspaper circles. But it's apparent the new blog wave doesn't look "down" to the local newspaper level.

We'll do what we can to get them to notice papers on this level, which are usually growing in circulation and have their fingers on the pulse of their individual communities much more.